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One of the best features on the NFL Vegas Odds is the Open Line. This numbers consists of the first betting line received from one of our Las Vegas or Global Sportsbooks. Find NFL odds, point spreads, and betting lines for the 2020-2021 football season. Visit FOXSports.com for this week's top action!
Of the opening player prop lines, this is one of the few that really stood out to me. I probably don’t need to sing you Mahomes’ praises, but I’ll throw some stats at you. The superstar quarterback has totaled 42 touchdowns through the air in his 17 games. He had 3+ TD passes only seven times though, including his dominant performance versus Tampa Bay in Week 11. He’s also thrown for three scores in four of his seven career playoff games.
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However, taking this prop isn’t about just betting on Mahomes (although I have to admit it’s comforting). It’s just as much about the matchup, and how Kansas City’s offensive strengths align versus the Bucs defense.
Firstly, Tampa has a dominant rush defense. They allowed the fewest yards per carry, fewest rush yards, and forced their opponents into the highest percentage of pass plays in the NFL during the regular season. The Bucs have allowed 11 touchdowns on the ground in their 19 regular season and playoff games this season. And every one of these touchdowns were from eight or fewer yards out.
Excluding when Mahomes has been on the bench, the Chiefs have rushed for 15 touchdowns this year. However, seven of those were from longer than 10 yards out. Conversely, Mahomes threw for 24 touchdowns from inside the ten. So, 75% of the Chiefs’ TDs from inside the 10-yard line are through the air.
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At the end of the day, the raw numbers add up. The Bucs allowed 74% of opposing offensive touchdowns through the air, and the Chiefs scored 73% of their offensive touchdowns through the air.
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The Chiefs are implied to score more than 28 points. In Mahomes’ career, he’s thrown for at least three TDs more than two-thirds of the time his team has scored at least 28 points (21 of 31). I love leaning on the best player on the field, to do what he does best.